币圈“巴菲特”

Every time there is a change in the Federal Reserve chair, does it cause a major earthquake in the crypto world? Can this time change the historical pattern? Let's take a look at how much $BTC dropped during each chair change: Yellen -> $BTC dropped 83%; Powell -> $BTC dropped 73%; Powell -> $BTC dropped 61%. Waller -> ?????? I am not very optimistic about $BTC in the coming days; multiple factors, including politics, economy, and culture, have not shown any positive signs. I suggest focusing on short positions or not trading during the chair change days; history will not completely repeat itself, but it will be remarkably similar. #沃什提名落定：首位持币Fed主席 $BTC @OKX星球 @八喜Zora_OKX @米妮Minnie_OKX @可乐Cola_OKX

$ORDI has been half a month since the last ORDI surge. Riding the coattails of the last $RAVE, it surged again. Currently, it's fluctuating around 4.5U, looking like it has stabilized at the bottom, aiming to maintain an upward trend. To be honest, I still have a lot of feelings for inscriptions because this is the last waltz of the real crypto world. It's the only time retail investors have won against capital in a clear sense. It's the only time exchanges have bowed down to understand retail sentiment. Since then, the crypto world has changed, influenced by various news and controlled by many forces. The entry of capital brought liquidity but also nightmares for retail investors. Making money has become incredibly difficult; capital's layout can last for ten years, while retail investors' layout is just three seconds without a rise? They sell. This misalignment in the hunting competition? Are you sure you can win? 🥇 The rise of ORDI carries the unyielding determination of retail investors and their dissatisfaction with capital. If we go back to the previous 70U for ORDI, would anyone want it? Would you still say: "No way, it's too expensive"?

Musk vs Ultraman, the century trial, worth 130 billion, the tears of dinosaurs 🦖🥺 #马斯克vs奥特曼：$1300亿AI世纪庭审 Watching Musk in court, heartbroken, saying "we can't drain the charity," my first reaction wasn't to be moved, but rather a sense of physical discomfort. This isn't about rights protection; it's clearly the most ruthless move in a commercial battlefield, the "guillotine." 1️⃣ The so-called "original intention" is actually "sour grapes." Musk's current identity is extremely awkward: plaintiff + CEO of xAI, a direct competitor to OpenAI. OpenAI's lawyers directly characterize this as a "harassment strategy," which I fully agree with. The trial revealed that his actual donation back then was only 38 million dollars, far below the promised 1 billion, and he only stopped donating after failing to gain control. Now, seeing OpenAI's valuation soar to 850 billion dollars, with Microsoft's 13 billion investment coming to fruition, he can't sit still. Can the jury believe his "charitable crusader" persona? I have my doubts. 2️⃣ "Species discrimination" exposes the absurdity of AI safety. The most surreal detail of the trial is "species discrimination." Musk claims he was scolded by Google's Page for favoring humans, which made him angrily establish OpenAI. If this is true, then the world-shocking AI safety movement originated from a petty quarrel. This makes me feel that the entire industry's safety narrative is hypocritical—founders themselves haven't figured it out, yet they want all of humanity to pay for their personal grudges. 3️⃣ If he wins, the AI industry will regress by 5 years. Musk demands a return to pure non-profit status, the removal of Ultraman, and open-sourcing AGI. If he actually wins: Capital flight: Microsoft's investment goes down the drain; who would dare to invest in long-term AI infrastructure in the future? A non-profit shell can't support the trillion-level computing costs. Logical subversion: OpenAI's charter clearly allows for "for-profit subsidiaries," and legally, it's hard to say he is absolutely right. This move seems more like a delaying tactic, using litigation to slow down the opponent's IPO, giving xAI precious time to catch up. My judgment: Don't be fooled by moral tears. This is a commercial ambush using the law as a weapon. What Musk cares about is not whether AGI is safe, but "why am I not the one making money?" In essence, it's all a struggle for interests, just a matter of whose butt decides their brain. #马斯克vs奥特曼：$1300亿AI世纪庭审 @OKX中文 @OKX星球 @八喜Zora_OKX @米妮Minnie_OKX @可乐Cola_OKX $BTC $ETH $SOL

Trump's "Suffocation War": When Iran's oil tanks are full, the road for Crypto is also blocked After just reading the news from The Wall Street Journal and the Treasury Department, it feels like this time the U.S. blockade against Iran is no joke. Trump has abandoned the "loud" bombing approach and chosen a more insidious tactic—long-term economic suffocation. As someone who pays attention to macroeconomics and Crypto, I think this move might be harder for Iran than being bombed. 1️⃣ Physical Blockade: Oil can't be sold, tanks are filling up The core strategy is to choke off the Strait of Hormuz. According to the latest data, traffic through the strait has plummeted by 95%, which is equivalent to directly cutting off Iran's lifeblood. The most critical issue is the storage space for oil. The storage capacity at Iran's main export terminal, Kharg Island, is nearing its limit. Some analysts predict that in just a few days, the land storage tanks will be completely full. Although they are using tankers as "floating storage," this won't last long. Once there is no place to store the oil, Iran will be forced to shut down wells and reduce production. This is not just about losing some money; once the wells are closed, restarting them could lead to permanent capacity damage. Currently, it is estimated that if the blockade continues, Iran's daily production could decrease by 1.5 million barrels, resulting in a direct loss of about $170 million in revenue each day. 2️⃣ Financial Strangulation: The Crypto route is also blocked If blocking the ports is like cutting off their limbs, then the Treasury's actions are like digging into their hearts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has made it clear that they want to target Iran's "shadow banking" and cryptocurrency channels. On April 24, the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control directly froze approximately $344 million in cryptocurrency assets related to Iran. This indicates that Iran's previous method of bypassing dollar settlements through Crypto has now also come under U.S. scrutiny. Previously, many thought on-chain assets were anonymous and secure, but now it seems that in the face of national-level sanctions, on-chain traceability combined with exchange KYC can also deliver precise strikes. This serves as a significant warning for countries attempting to evade sanctions using Crypto. 3️⃣ Personal Perspective: Why is "suffocating" worse than "bombing"? Trump's choice of this tactic indeed reflects a business mindset: Low military risk: No casualties, less domestic anti-war pressure. High economic damage: Let Iran watch its economy bleed out little by little, yet unable to retaliate directly. The warning for Crypto: Many used to think Crypto was a "safe haven" under sanctions, but this time the U.S. has directly frozen wallets, indicating that regulatory reach has extended to on-chain activities. For ordinary holders, the importance of compliance has risen to another level. Currently, WTI oil prices have reached $102, and if the blockade continues, oil prices are likely to remain volatile. For us, paying attention to geopolitical issues is also about ensuring the safety of our assets. Iran's example tells us that in the face of absolute political power, the survival space for technology and Crypto is being compressed. Sigh, the common people suffer, forget, the common people suffer #美伊谈判僵局：三阶段方案遭特朗普否决 @OKX星球 @八喜Zora_OKX @可乐Cola_OKX @米妮Minnie_OKX

Silicon Valley venture capital guru's "survival warning" for Bitcoin: $BTC will become a necessity for businesses. Renowned investor Tim Draper has recently upgraded his positioning of Bitcoin from a "high-potential investment option" to a "survival necessity for both businesses and personal finances." Based on current macro risks, he issued several core warnings: 1️⃣ Warning for businesses: He believes that in the current fragile banking system, any company holding a large amount of cash that does not allocate 5%-15% of its funds to Bitcoin is being "irresponsible" in its financial strategy. He cited the Silicon Valley Bank crisis as an example, pointing out that once the traditional banking chain breaks, businesses could instantly fall into a payment crisis. 2️⃣ Advice for households: He suggests that ordinary families should hold enough Bitcoin to cover six months of living expenses as the "ultimate hedge asset" against sudden risks in the fiat currency system. 3️⃣ Judgment for nations: He believes that countries facing hyperinflation have their treasury value closely related to whether they hold Bitcoin. Draper's core conclusion is that in today's world, not holding any Bitcoin is no longer a "missed opportunity" but a financial risk that requires "alertness." He redefined the nature of Bitcoin from a tool for pursuing "get-rich-quick" schemes to a must-have "underlying risk-hedging chip." Tim Draper is a long-term super bull on Bitcoin, and his statements carry strong advocacy and preaching qualities. @OKX星球 $BTC $ETH

I have a particularly strong premonition lately— the world is about to collapse. From May to June, U.S. stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies will all plummet, and it will be a massive crash. The root cause is simple: oil prices are too high. At $100 a barrel, the world can't handle it. Many countries' strategic reserves are nearly depleted. Iran's oil can't be shipped out, the tanks are all full, and the only option left is to cut production. Even if things return to normal across the Strait, it will take a long time for production to recover. As long as oil prices stay at $100 for another month or two, a bunch of small countries will face direct economic collapse. Surely someone will say: What does it matter to the U.S. if small countries collapse? I can only say that the global economy is like grasshoppers on a rope. The chips used for AI are made in South Korea and Taiwan, and the raw materials for those chips come from Japan... If one link breaks, everything breaks. Americans can't withstand $100 oil prices either, Trump is constantly shouting and sending messages, trying every way to push oil prices down. Short now, wait two months, and you can look forward to the young models at the club.

Powell's "Last Dance": Hawkish Stance Under the Shadow of Stagflation 1️⃣ Core Tone: Holding Steady, but the Winds Have Changed In the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, Powell will preside over his last interest rate meeting in office. The market expects interest rates to be firmly locked in at 3.50%–3.75%. The focus this time is not on whether to cut rates, but rather that the expectations for rate cuts are being thoroughly crushed. The risk of stagflation leaves the Federal Reserve with no room to discuss easing. 2️⃣ Macro Dilemma: Four Shocks in Five Years, Inflation Hard to Tame Over the past five years (pandemic, Russia-Ukraine, tariffs, Middle East), supply shocks have not ceased. Although each was viewed as a "one-time event," the cumulative effect has caused inflation to deviate from the 2% target for five consecutive years. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up energy costs, and it may take at least a year for inflation to fall back to 2%; the shadow of 1970s stagflation is no longer a joke. 3️⃣ Internal Struggle: Consensus Shift from "Dove" to "Hawk" Attitude Reversal: Last year, board member Waller supported rate cuts, but this month he has turned cautious, stating, "If this continues, who will still believe our promises?" Reality Dilemma: New York Fed President Williams admits that "inflation is rising," not falling. The previous idea of using rate cuts to offset rising real interest rates has been shelved. 4️⃣ Key Focus: The "Line of Life and Death" in Statement Wording The biggest suspense of the meeting is whether the phrase "the next action is more likely to be a rate cut" will be removed from the statement. 🦅 Hawkish: Wants to remove it, implying equal probabilities for rate hikes and cuts. Powell: Likely to choose "vague," making no radical changes, leaving the tough questions for his successor Kevin Warsh after he steps down on May 15. 5. Market Impact: High Rates Will Become the New Normal Powell's farewell means that "Higher for Longer" officially becomes the baseline scenario. For Bitcoin and risk assets, the liquidity environment remains tight before the Federal Reserve fully pivots, and caution is needed regarding profit-taking pressure at high levels. What you think is ultimately just what you think, because your considerations are subjective and overlook objective laws. #鲍威尔4·29议息：任期收官之战 $BTC $ETH $SOL @OKX中文 @OKX星球 @八喜Zora_OKX @可乐Cola_OKX @米妮Minnie_OKX

$ZKJ plummeted 232 times before a violent rebound, can we chase this wave? Brothers, $ZKJ has been quite active these days, rising from a low of 0.01U to 0.049U, rebounding several times. But I need to pour some cold water on this: First, let's look at the data: The historical high of 2.32U dropped to a low of 0.01U, which is a drop of 232 times. The current price of 0.038U is still only 1.6% of the high, still at the "ankle cut" position. Why the sudden surge? 1. Oversold rebound From 2.32, it fell to 0.01, the drop was too deep, and there is a technical need for recovery. 2. Riding the wave of the ZK track Recently, the concept of zero-knowledge proofs (ZK) has warmed up, and although $ZKJ has changed its name, it has caught some of the heat. 3. Small market cap is easy to manipulate Currently, the circulating market value is only 7-12 million USD, and a few hundred thousand dollars can trigger a wave. This is not a reversal, but a self-indulgence of the funds in the market. What’s next? Short-term temptation, huge risks. 1. Heavy trapped positions above From 0.038 upwards, 0.05 and 0.1 are all dense trapped areas. Once it rebounds, there will be a lot of selling pressure. Want to break even? Difficult. 2. Fundamentals remain unchanged The previous flash crash event (an 80% drop in one day) has left the community with no confidence, and the label is still "high-risk shitcoin." 3. Operation suggestions Holders: This rebound is an opportunity to exit. Those wanting to chase: Absolutely don’t! It’s too close to the previous low of 0.01, and once it pulls back, it’s a halving. If it breaks below 0.025, it’s highly likely to test the bottom again. Personally, I think this is a "flash in the pan," not a "bull market return." Without trading volume support and substantial good news, all rises should be seen as a wave to escape. High volatility, small market cap, the risk of going to zero is extremely high. If you want to play, use money you can afford to lose, and be prepared for a 50% drop at any time.

A bull market is when it makes you feel like it’s not a bull market, you don’t believe a bull market is coming, you don’t believe in the rise, and that’s when the bull market arrives. A bear market is when it makes you feel like it won’t drop, it won’t break down, I don’t believe it will fall, and that’s when the bear market comes. Look at the current situation. Everyone analyze it. #白宫预告战略BTC储备重大公告 @OKX星球 $BTC $ETH

BTC Market Insights: The Divine is the Law, the Savior is Yourself The Divine is the Way, the Way is natural, as it comes. There is no savior in the market; the only thing that can save you is the understanding of the laws. 1️⃣ The Current "Situation": The 80,000 Threshold, Diverse Lives At this moment, BTC is at the gates, once again knocking on the door of $80,000. A 16% increase since April may seem like a celebration of K-lines, but in reality, it is the laws filtering the crowd. Strong Players: They focus on the objective laws behind geopolitical easing and ETF net inflows. They know that price is just the result; funds and emotions are the cause. Weak Players: They pray for a "savior" while staring at the market, hoping a single bullish candle will change their fate. This is a weak culture, a dependency on the hope of extraordinary gains. 2️⃣ Market Perspective: Technology, System, and Culture Ding Yuanying said that there are three layers to perceive society: technology, system, and culture. The same applies to market analysis: 1. Technical Layer (Situation): $79,500 is the current touchstone. A breakthrough opens up space, while a pullback tests patience. This is the most superficial "situation." 2. System Layer (Momentum): Continuous net inflows into spot ETFs indicate that institutions are "voting with their feet." This is the certainty of momentum brought by changes in the rules of the game. 3. Cultural Layer (Root): This is the game of cultural attributes. Do you believe in the "strong culture" of code and mathematics, or the "weak culture" of market makers and news? 3️⃣ Survival Rules: The Gap Between Endurance and Ability The market has never shown mercy to tears. The survival rule is simple: endure what others cannot, and do what others cannot. • Endure: When the price repeatedly hovers below $80,000, can you resist the urge to chase highs and panic sell? • Ability: When others are asking, "Can I buy?" have you already established your own position management and stop-loss discipline? The gap between endurance and ability is your only chance of survival in this market. 4️⃣ The Path to Salvation: Breaking the "Rely" Mentality The distant savior is not in the words of analysts, nor in so-called "insider information." The savior is yourself, your respect for objective laws. If you have not "awakened" or "realized," even if others give you the code, you will not be able to hold it. If you are still "relying" on news or "relying" on others, then you are destined to be the weak one in this game. The Divine is the Way, the Way is the law. The law comes, and it does not allow for your speculation. Those who act according to the law are their own gods. #BTC四年周期 #恐慌贪婪指数 @OKX星球 $BTC $ETH $SOL