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CPI at 3.8% was uncomfortable. PPI at 1% month-over-month -- hottest since 2022 -- is a different level of concern. When both consumer and producer inflation measures beat expectations in the same week, the Fed's path to rate cuts does not just narrow -- it closes. Bitcoin felt it immediately: $635M in ETF outflows in a single day, BTC dropped to $79,416, the 6-week inflow streak is over.
The transmission is straightforward. Hot PPI means producer costs are rising, which feeds into consumer prices with a lag. If core inflation is running above 3.5% at the producer level, CPI is not coming down to 2% in the next few quarters. A Warsh-led Fed -- even one more open to crypto innovation -- cannot cut rates without credibility risk. Liquidity stays tight. Risk assets stay under pressure. Short-term, the macro is genuinely bad.
The long view is different. JPMorgan estimates the $39 trillion US debt load and potential dollar devaluation create a structural case for Bitcoin as a hedge. Ray Dalio has been making the same argument. Hot inflation is short-term bearish for BTC on rate expectations but long-term bullish on the debasement thesis. The market is currently focused on the short term. At what price level would you be comfortable adding BTC against this inflation backdrop?
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