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#WarshTakesFedChair: The Senate Voted. Powell Stays in the Room. The Era Officially Changes Friday.
Kevin Warsh is hours away from becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair. The Senate voted 49-44 for cloture on his nomination Monday — with only two Democrats crossing party lines — and a final confirmation vote is expected before Powell's term ends Friday, May 15th.
The path wasn't clean. Senator Thom Tillis held up the nomination for weeks over the DOJ's investigation into Powell, only dropping his hold after the DOJ gave assurances. The committee vote was pure party lines — 13 Republicans for, 11 Democrats against. Elizabeth Warren called him Trump's "sock puppet." The two Democratic crossovers, Fetterman and Coons, provided just enough margin.
What Warsh inherits Friday is a mess. A divided FOMC with four dissents at the last meeting. Inflation running at 3.3% annually and expected to hit 3.7% when tonight's CPI drops. Oil at four-year highs. A Strait of Hormuz still barely moving. A labor market that keeps surprising to the upside. Every data point argues against the rate cuts markets want — and that Warsh has quietly signaled he's open to.
The Powell wrinkle adds a layer nobody expected. Rather than leaving the building entirely, Powell announced he'll remain on the Board of Governors — the same room, two seats away. Trump had wanted the seat empty. He's getting a predecessor watching every move instead.
Warsh came in saying he'd remake the Fed. The data is going to have something to say about that.
#WarshTakesFedChair

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