I’ll be watching XPL sentiment closely ahead of TGE and may look to enter a short. It’s showing some of the same warning signs we saw with WLFI, Pump, Berachain.
- Endless bullish noise from people who already have bags. Just because you’re already up big doesn’t mean the trade still has legs. Many farmers will be looking to cash out and lock in APR.
- Expectations are overinflated. Stablecoin flow won’t migrate overnight. It could take years before fundamentals justify the pre-market valuation. Either adoption accelerates meaningfully, or the price bleeds back to fair value.
- A lot of price discovery already happened pre-TGE. Anyone waiting for a pump on launch day will likely be underwhelmed, lose patience, and move on to the next hot narrative.
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