금이 간 이더리움 Flywheel
결론부터 얘기하자면 이더리움 Flywheel에 금이 갔다고 생각합니다. DAT 출시 이후 저는 이더리움 Flywheel이 시작되었다고 믿었고 현재 그 믿음에 금이 갔습니다.
이더리움 플라이휠이 저는 ETF, SER(Strategic Ethereum Reserve) 라는 두 톱니바퀴가 동시에 맞물려야만 가능하다고 생각합니다. 하지만, 최근 이더리움 ETF를 보면 오히려 비트코인 ETF에서 유입을 보였어도 3일연속 유출인 모습을 보이고 있습니다.
이뿐만이 아니라 오늘 뜬 DAT에 대한 규제강화. 사실 뜯어보면 별게 아닐수도 있어요. 그냥 사기치는 놈들 못하게 하려고 막는 장치일 수 있지만 상세적인 내용보다 표면적인 'DAT기업 규제' 라는 제목이 심리나 가격적으로 크게 반영되는 모습을 보이고 있습니다.
현재 ETF & SER 두 톱니바퀴가 맞물리는게 아니라 둘다 같이 금이가고 동작을 안한다고 생각합니다. 이게 다시 견고해질만한 것이 있을까 생각해봤는데 저는 떠오르지 않네요. 저는 여태 이더리움이 플라이휠에서 물량을 말도안되게 흡수하고 시장에서 공급량이 극한으로 제한되면서 올랐다고 생각합니다.
순수한 내러티브? 가장 최근에 핫했던 아이겐-Restaking을 생각하면 답 없습니다. 누군가 존나사서 희귀성을 늘려야되는건데 이제 구매력이 주춤하면서 플라이휠에는 금이 갔습니다.
조심하는게.
The Ethereum FlyWheel has begun.
1. ETF
- Recently, there has been more inflow into Ethereum than Bitcoin in ETFs. Just considering last July, not only was the inflow greater than that of Bitcoin ETFs, but there were also many days when Ethereum showed tremendous inflow even on days when Bitcoin experienced outflows. And the speed of this is incredibly fast. This phenomenon indicates that Ethereum in the market is being absorbed rapidly by ETFs.
2. Strategic Ethereum Reserve
- Just as Bitcoin had Metaplanet and Strategica, recently, two companies have emerged in Ethereum: Sharplink Gaming and Bitmine. Sharplink Gaming announced a strategic purchase of Ethereum through $425M in funding on 5/27 and currently holds 464K Ethereum, while Bitmine announced a strategic purchase of Ethereum through $250M in funding on 6/30 and currently holds 625K Ethereum.
The only risk factor for these companies is the funding method for purchasing Ethereum or Bitcoin. Typically, they use methods like Pipe (Private investment in public equity) deals to buy shares at a low price from private equity and VCs, or the convertible notes method, which is mainly used by strategists, allowing them to convert bonds into shares after a predetermined period in the future. All these methods have the downside of increasing the number of shares later, diluting value, but this is resolved if the price of the cryptocurrency being purchased rises.
I believe that the Ethereum FlyWheel has started with the current absorption of Ethereum by ETFs and the Strategic Ethereum Reserve combined. Regardless of smart contracts or tokenization, there is just insane demand right now, and there is no infinite supply source to stop it. In fact, the Ethereum supply over the last 30 days has reached -2.9M. Has the Ethereum network been activated? Have amazing Dapps emerged? Has the gas fee increased, leading to higher burn rates? There is just insane demand occurring. I think the reason for the current price stagnation is due to selling pressure from existing staking amounts caused by price increases. The validator queue peaked at about 740,000, which is the highest ever, and this amount is certainly not small, so I believe this amount is coming to the market, combined with Bitcoin's weakness, and is taking a moment to catch its breath.
Do not doubt the Ethereum FlyWheel.
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