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It's the moment you've waited for, desired and above all else feared.
It's time for the 2023 shopping list!
(Which is also supporting public goods funding! Woo
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Before we dive into the shopping list, let's do two things.
First, recap what a shopping list is.
Second, review last year's shopping list.
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My shopping list strategy is based on the idea, that during every big spike down in the markets, you don't have time to research individual assets, or else you will miss a buying opportunity.
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Every shopping list starts with establishing a thesis, and a buying plan.
Your thesis is what catalysts you think will drive the markets in the next 3-5 years.
Your buying plan is how much scale to buy of each asset, and what conditions to buy under.
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Each year I share my shopping list and discuss the catalysts that I think could drive assets on that list.
I don't share my buying plan, because those are always personal based on an individuals circumstances, risk tolerance and timeline.
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As a long term investor, I expect the potential of large drawdowns and having to hold for multiple years.
I also expect that some assets will go to absolute zero, and that's ok, if I size my bets accordingly.
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With a shopping list, you should never over concentrate into a few assets, or buy all at once.
And, your shopping list should be assets *YOU* believe in.
I share mine based on what I think will perform. You should focus on evaluating if you agree with those catalysts.
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Overall, remember, this isn't investment advice.
A purchase that is right for me, may not be one that is right for you.
And any asset purchased could be a good purchase one day, and a bad purchase the next.
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A shopping list also isn't static.
You need to reevaluate it on a monthly basis, think of it in the context of the global macro, shifting industry events and new developments.
In investing, being static is a death wish.
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I always aim for "Strong Opinions; Loosely Held" (SOLH) which means I have conviction & reason behind my choices, but I'm not afraid to adjust when new information comes along.
Last year, this meant shorting as a war broke out and the Fed failed to respond to inflation.
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Hedging downside with contracts allowed me to continue spot buying assets that I felt were important for the future.
With all that in mind, let's talk about last year:
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But, if we look at the top 130 assets by marketcap after this rally, the average one year draw down was -72% and the average drawdown of my list? -71.16%
And these tokens had an average 30.86% rebound from the lows, beating out BTC and ETH on the recovery.
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Obviously it was a rough year, lets not pretend it wasn't; but the asset list did outperform the average index, and in many cases their peers.
It didn't win out against holding BTC or ETH, which you wouldn't expect, but those won't deliver huge multipliers either.
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Now lets dive into this years shopping list.
A few things to note:
1. Disclaimer: I own most of these assets, I'm absolutely talking my book and if I didn't believe in the asset enough to buy it, it wouldn't be on my list.
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2. If people stupidly ape into I certainly may rebalance some positions, but I think these are long term winners. But, if you blow it out 100x in a day, look, I'mma dump on you and rebuy afterwards and so will other holders.
3. Custom AI art for each asset cause fun.
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4. This year I've also taken sponsorship and affiliate links which the revenue from will be going to Gitcoin grants. This is only for outbound links. Projects could not pay to get on the list.
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This years thesis summary:
-Real external revenue continues to be the most important factor.
-But, assets are so depressed that there are some 'growth' style tokens that have a good r:r
-Focus on real revenue catalysts, novel infrastructure and UX plays.
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Real revenue refers to projects that users external to the project use and generate revenue for, especially in cases where it isn't supported by on going emission incentives which ultimately cost users.
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The other important highlight is UX plays.
This isn't just design, this is anything that makes it simple for users to use blockchain technology.
Just like a web browser or a search engine makes the internet easy to use, we need tools that make crypto easy to use.
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These can be bridges, multchain apps, automation tools, smart wallets, etc.
Anything that makes the complicated system of fractured liquidity easier to use or to build on.
With that in mind, lets dive in:
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S-Class:
#1 Ethereum:
Ethereum really needs no justification for being on the top list.
It's got the most users, its deflationary when in use, and it has a dozen upcoming scaling solutions.
Buy on Sideshift:
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